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Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Mike Rivers #3032901 03/12/20 12:28 PM
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Well, there was no visible sign of concern at the concert I saw on Friday night, where nearly 1,900 people attended, but since then the D.C. Health Dept. issued this -

DC Health Advisory
Wednesday, March 11, 2020
(Washington, DC) – DC Health recommends that non-essential mass gatherings, including conferences and conventions, be postponed or cancelled. Mass gatherings are defined as events where 1,000 or more people congregate in a specific location. We also recommend that any social, cultural, or entertainment events where large crowds are anticipated be reconsidered by the organizer. This recommendation is in effect through March 31.

Pretty much every major concert venue in the city holds more than 1,000 people. Cherry Blossom Festival is cancelled, which is a big blow to D.C. tourism. Over 200 churches in the D.C. are closing for the next two weeks. Several major universities have gone over to online classes, and local schools are looking at schedule changes, even possible shutdowns.

While I support self-quarantining if you're sick, and avoiding large crowds if you're not, this goes well beyond the impact on the entertainment industry.

In this area, there are a lot of school-age children who count on a school lunch as their most dependable, and possibly heathy meal of the day, and I know that's not just happening here. Older people whose only social activity centers around their place of worship are going to be increasingly isolated. I'm far less concerned about being shut out of a basketball tournament, or even missing a concert, than I am about hungry kids, and lonely elders.


"Monsters are real, and Ghosts are real too. They live inside us, and sometimes, they win." Stephen King

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Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3032910 03/12/20 01:55 PM
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I work in community theatre; we have a show scheduled for early next month: ~8000 audience members (in a 1400 seat theater) over the course of the weekend.

Current impacts: local universities have shut down campuses, are extending spring break, and then plan on holding classes remotely. This leaves a few of our cast members without local housing.

Potential future impacts: obviously, sick cast or crew members is a possibility, but I think a more likely impact is that our state health dept will recommend that large gatherings be canceled, and/or our venue will make the decision to cancel events that overlaps with our show weekend.

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3032913 03/12/20 02:23 PM
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Just this morning, American Public Radio's Marketplace Tech Report was about the cancellation of trade shows, the potential for virtual trade shows pro-and-con, and a bonus for musicians who have been losing work because of gig cancellations - doing virtual shows on Twitch.



Anyone remember sales weasel Jeff Klopmeyer, aka musician Zak Klaxton, who used to post on Harmony Central and do shows on Second Life? What went around once might be going around again.

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Winston Psmith #3032936 03/12/20 04:12 PM
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Originally Posted by Winston Psmith

DC Health Advisory
Wednesday, March 11, 2020



D.C. is under a state of emergency and a public health emergency, a move that comes after health officials announced a jump in the number of new coronavirus cases on Wednesday.

From IMP's website :

While we wake up every day looking forward to welcoming fans into our venues, D.C.’s Mayor Bowser has just recommended that gatherings of 1,000 or more people be suspended until March 31. After tonight, to be cautious, we are postponing all I.M.P. events scheduled at the 9:30 Club, Lincoln Theatre and The Anthem, as well as shows 9:30 Club Presents at U Street Music Hall, regardless of the size of the gathering. Shows will begin again April 1.

I think postponements will go longer than expected...


A reason why I collect old keyboards is that I feel partly responsible for doing it, responsible for preserving history and being a custodian for these things
Plus, old gear has a story. I like that.
Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Mike Rivers #3032938 03/12/20 04:19 PM
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Originally Posted by Mike Rivers
What's your concept of a virtual trade show? Maybe my virtual experience is too limited to conceive of how a virtual trade show could work for me.

It is smile

I didn't go to AES last year. Sure, there's something to be said for being able to kick tires and hang out at the Marriott bar...I get that. But at what cost? How many times have you said "I'd go to XYZ, but I can't afford it?"

I'd rather go to a virtual AES than not go at all, and the current haphazard approach to show coverage is nothing compared to what a coordinated effort would be. NAMM reaches 100,000 people. How many people would attend a virtual trade show? I think millions.

For me, "virtual trade show" isn't a buzzword based on VR, it's a complete strategy that involves multiple facets, and addresses pretty much all of your concerns. This isn't the time or place to get into the details, but I've refined the concept a lot over the last 15 years. The final pieces of technology needed to do what I think is necessary are falling into place, too.

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3032945 03/12/20 04:42 PM
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I keep going back and forth on whether these measures are too extreme, but one thing's for certain: if you are going to go full-court-press on cancellations, better to do it at the beginning (assuming it works!) and have a short period of intense inconvenience, rather than a long period of constant, long-term inconvenience.

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3032953 03/12/20 05:47 PM
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Madison, Wisconsin's Between the Waves conference and festival just got postponed to October...too bad, it's such a cool event. I always look forward to it. Then again, with SynthPlex being moved to October, it's shaping up to be a fun Fall smile

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3032962 03/12/20 06:41 PM
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I just had a gig cancelled. A once-per-year pool party for the same client we've played for over 10 consecutive years. They are such a good customer, I didn't even take a deposit. I probably would have returned it anyway as it seems the right thing to do for a long-term customer.

So the economic downturn has hit me. frown

I guess it could be worse.

Notes


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Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3032965 03/12/20 06:51 PM
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Personally, I don't think this coronavirus can be contained. It's too late for that. We have no idea how many people who have it are 'at large'.

It's like starting with a penny on a checkerboard, and going through the squares one at a time doubling your money. In the end you'll have well over a million dollars.

Since the incubation can take a few days, and since some with a mild case will think they just have a cold or the flu, there are plenty of pennies out there.

I think your best defense is to stay as healthy as you can and personally, I believe a healthy mindset will help.

Panic won't help you, and neither will ignoring it. Use your common sense.

Insights and incites by Notes


Bob "Notes" Norton
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Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3032966 03/12/20 06:59 PM
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Yeah, it looks like a tsunami of cancellations is just coming ashore. The NBA suspension of the season might have been one of the major catalysts.

My friends, family, and acquaintances are coming down on both sides of the great divide between the Safety First folks and the The Sky is Falling sceptics. Interesting that this divide seems to have a pretty heavy correlation between the more liberal people falling on one side, the more conservative on the other. You can figure out for yourself which general persuasion falls on which side of the virus divide. That's all I'll say about that to avoid veering off the road into the muddy fields of politics -

It's a conundrum, isn't it? If the virus peters out in the relative short term, one side will say "see, the radical measures to contain were justified by their success" while the other side will say, "see, it was nothing much after all, just like we've been saying."

One thing is for certain - cancel your visits to the Retirement Home by all means.

nat

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3032967 03/12/20 06:59 PM
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We went to the Harry Connick, Jr. show last night at Hobby Center, in the 2650-seat theater which was mostly or completely full. Harry himself said he wasn't sure anyone would be there. (Dave Doerfler knows this venue in a way as it's where TTB has played the last couple of times they've come through town.) I wasn't crazy about being there with all those people, but we had front row seats and mostly kept our distance.

Yet earlier in the day, they canceled the remainder of the Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo. Outside of the area, you may not think this is a big deal, but it's huge. Start with the big-name concerts and see all the acts that just got canceled in the first section, and then see the other acts that did get to play before the cancellation. Overall, the event has over 35,000 volunteers that help it run. In other words, cancelling the next two weeks of it is a huge blow to Houston. "In 2017, attendance reached a record high of 2,611,176 people and 33,000 volunteers." Take that, SXSW. (just kidding, sucks for them and Austin, too.)

Like the Connick show, a number of the local non-profit promoters are saying their shows are still going on, but I don't know how long that will last. I'm leaning towards minimizing these events for a while and let things cool off and get under control.

As far as the NBA, I am always watching those guys in amazement, licking their fingers and then handling the ball, the amount of contact between players, taking out mouthguards and putting them in their socks, etc., so that's definitely a sport that should shut down for a while.

[Linked Image from sports.cbsimg.net]

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Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3032976 03/12/20 07:45 PM
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Major League Baseball has cancelled spring training and delayed opening day by at least 2 weeks. My baseball nut friend who just attended a spring training game last weekend is going to be pissed.

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Nowarezman #3032997 03/12/20 10:37 PM
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Originally Posted by Nowarezman
My friends, family, and acquaintances are coming down on both sides of the great divide between the Safety First folks and the The Sky is Falling sceptics.


Well, as I mentioned, sometimes there are no good alternatives...only less bad ones.

If the Safety First folks have it wrong, there will have been a huge amount of economic distress for nothing. If they're right, the economy will still be wrecked, but if the virus is stopped in its tracks, then the economy will recover fairly quickly.

If the Sky Is Falling Skeptics have it wrong, then the degree of havoc - both economic and in terms of health - will be devastating. If they're right, then we won't have to go through painful disruptions.

So to me, it looks the skeptics are placing an all-or-nothing bet, while the safety first folks are betting that no matter what, the end result will be somewhere between all and nothing.

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3033008 03/12/20 11:23 PM
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Originally Posted by Anderton
[quote=Nowarezman]

So to me, it looks the skeptics are placing an all-or-nothing bet, while the safety first folks are betting that no matter what, the end result will be somewhere between all and nothing.


You need to go on Fox News and say this. smile

nat

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3033012 03/12/20 11:38 PM
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California cancelled all gatherings of 250 people or more through the end of March at least. Every concert venue I've ever been to is emailing me that all shows are cancelled.

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3033034 03/13/20 02:50 AM
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I'm a public speaker and conferences are cancelling due to Coronavirus.. One of my mid-March conferences just cancelled this morning. Probably creating a nightmare scenario for meeting planners, hotels and conference centers. How do they recover? Might lead to litigious situations. We'll see.

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
SteveCoscia #3033041 03/13/20 03:10 AM
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Originally Posted by SteveCoscia
Might lead to litigious situations. We'll see.


Probably not, most contracts have a [I]force majeure[i] clause that lets you off the hook for "acts of God." The problem is if people have made down payments, which may or not be refunded, or held until a date that was postponed

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3033044 03/13/20 03:42 AM
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Hopefully the virus will not begin ripping through the homeless population.

I work at a school, and we are taking tons of precautions, including canceling events, wiping down everything we touch on a daily basis, and more.

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3033055 03/13/20 09:52 AM
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So we just booked a May 2 show at a venue with a capacity of 750-1500 depending on the show and whether they open upper levels, etc. Meanwhile public events are supposed to be canceled that are 1000 or more people. So I guess we need to limit admission to 999. [sarcasm]I guess we'll just have to disappoint some fans[/sarcasm]. cool


Dan

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Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
J. Dead #3033080 03/13/20 02:20 PM
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A few of my friends have also had gigs cancelled.

It's not as big a Disney shutting down, but I think it hurts the small guy living week-to week proportionally as much, perhaps even more.

This too will pass, so we just have to try to make good decisions and hope for a little luck as well.

Notes


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Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3033086 03/13/20 02:51 PM
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I just got back from a quick two day trip to Sweetwater.

Travel was surprisingly easy. I got upgraded to First both ways, which most certainly helped. Good to be a Million Miler.... w00t thu

The airports felt surprisingly normal, actually. Lotta Purell smell in O’Hare (dispensers all over the place), and there’s definitely a different vibe in the air…but folks seemed to be generally just doing their thing.

Light traffic home from LAX at 7PM was odd. That never, ever happens. idk

dB

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3033095 03/13/20 03:55 PM
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News just hit Austin of two confirmed cases - the school district called a 4:00am to say school was canceled. The panickers overwhelmed the grocery stores early this morning and even as I type are wiping out supplies of all sorts of crazy stuff (toilet paper?? Bottled water???).

Isn't America supposed to be the home of the brave?

nat

EDIT: slight amendation: the technical definition of the status of diagnoses is "presumptive positive" meaning specimens were sent to a state lab and were found positive. But apparently the diagnosis is not considered absolutely "confirmed" until CDC has a look at it, too. News reports also say the infections were not caused by contact with local people. But the authorities are quick to point out that the spread of the thing locally is to be expected at any time.

Here we go.....


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Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3033102 03/13/20 04:54 PM
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An important interview, please watch this. A specialist on infectious diseases speaks.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cZF...tWoQvta8KS40AX8kl53VLFkyA_SMEIyOY1EoH478


There is never enough time to be in a hurry...
Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3033118 03/13/20 06:47 PM
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The tally is up - 3 gigs cancelled, another questionable - the committee is in a meeting.

The good thing about playing one-nighters at retirement communities is that 2 gigs a week pays like 4 to 5 nights in a restaurant or lounge. However each night that cancels means a half week pay gone.

Since these have all been good clients, I'm applying their deposits to the next time they book us. It just seems the right thing to do.

Insights and incites by "getting hungry" Notes


Bob "Notes" Norton
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Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
KuruPrionz #3033128 03/13/20 07:27 PM
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Originally Posted by KuruPrionz
An important interview, please watch this. A specialist on infectious diseases speaks.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cZF...tWoQvta8KS40AX8kl53VLFkyA_SMEIyOY1EoH478


Wow. If this guy really does know what he's talking about...and he sounds like he does...

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3033149 03/13/20 09:19 PM
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Posted this elsewhere, but worth repeating here -

Locally (Montgomery County, Maryland, right above Washington, D.C.), we had the first 3 reported cases in the state of Maryland, a couple in their 70's and a woman in her 50's, all of whom had recently been on a Nile River cruise. All 3 have recovered, are testing negative for the virus, and have been released from quarantine. There's also an apparently confirmed report of a 100-year-old man in China who has recovered. I suspect he'll be an outlier, but still . . .

Like the great Yogi Berra said, "It ain't over 'til it's over!" so stay smart, stay safe, and don't panic.


"Monsters are real, and Ghosts are real too. They live inside us, and sometimes, they win." Stephen King

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Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3033207 03/14/20 04:47 AM
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Was booked to play a gig in Fresno CA, a reunion of a band I was in 33 years ago.

They cancelled the show this evening and closed the club until further notice.

We had plane tickets but also refund insurance so catastrophe averted, disappointment is real...


There is never enough time to be in a hurry...
Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3033211 03/14/20 05:20 AM
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Here's a side effect I didn't expect: A magazine asked me not to submit a column for the next issue. A lot of their revenue comes from newsstand and particularly, airport kiosk sales. They figure that source of income is going to tank, and they want to tighten the budget as much as possible. I offered to do a column for free to make life a little easier for them, but haven't heard back yet..

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
KuruPrionz #3033212 03/14/20 05:21 AM
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Originally Posted by KuruPrionz
We had plane tickets but also refund insurance

This is why I book on Southwest whenever possible, I can use my plane fare to SynthPlex any time within the next year. They don't charge for the first couple bags, either smile

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3033228 03/14/20 07:05 AM
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Originally Posted by Anderton
Originally Posted by KuruPrionz
An important interview, please watch this. A specialist on infectious diseases speaks.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cZF...tWoQvta8KS40AX8kl53VLFkyA_SMEIyOY1EoH478


Wow. If this guy really does know what he's talking about...and he sounds like he does...


Yeah - it's pretty basic stuff. We've been hearing that the big overall fatality percentage is approx. 1% of those infected. Since the number of infections appears low in the U.S., most folks seem to be taking that as a "what me worry?" go-ahead.

The wildcard is, "how many people will be infected before this thing runs its course?".

U.S.A. has a population (rounding here) of 330 million. Mr. Osterholm cites a prediction of 96 million cases. So that's 29% of the population. Of the 96 million, 1/2 will need hospitalization (that's news to me!!). And of the 96 million, 1/2% (480,000) people will die from the disease.

So, simple math here...480,000 is 0.5% of those infected. So that is conservative versus the 1% I hear tossed around by the talking heads.

Now the 480,000 represents 0.1455% of the total 330 million. So the big picture is that the chances are really low that any particular person will die from this disease, considering the entire population.

But of course, the true chance of fatality is not spread evenly with each individual actually having 0.1455% chance. It breaks down into risk groups and we've all heard the basics on that - but Mr. Osterholm does point out that the "common wisdom" that this is an "old person's disease" may be far off base. However he does say that the very young seem to be doing pretty well, even if infected.

So it seems pretty clear to me at least - keeping down the number of people who get infected is the big factor. And individual choices have a lot to do with the risk of infection - 'tho there are many who have no choice, like healthcare folks unless they want to quit their jobs.

Job one around here is just to try and stay away from other people as much as possible - at least the 3 feet that's advised, with 30 feet and up being preferable.

I don't quite get why he vacillates on the question of closing schools or not. People will cope - the kids, once it's in the school, will spread it to nigh every kid in the school, right? And then on home, etc etc. Seems to me you have to close the schools once the thing shows up.

nat

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